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Super Rugby Pacific tipping week 9: desperation stakes to end the bye rounds

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21st April, 2023
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The final round bye round of the season sees the Australian games hosted in Melbourne and Perth, the bastions of expansion in the Australian game, and with both the Rebels and Western Force desperate for wins.

But of course, the desperation won’t end there.

The Drua will be looking for the four points they had a brief grip of in Canberra last week, the Crusaders are still trying to find their next gear, the Blues kind of need to find any gear at the moment, the Waratahs need to win a consecutive game for the first time since May last year, and the Highlanders find themselves making the longest away trip in Super Rugby.

It’s a full-blown Desperation Round. And that brings us firmly onto the form of our favourite Texan South African.

The newly crowned ‘Thorne Doctrine’ from last week has announced only a week later that it won’t be seeking re-use for the 2024 Tipping Panel, forcing the Hairy Man to declare this season is now a ‘re-tipping year’ and launching into a new series of tipping selections to blood new tips for next season.

And a worldwide search has begun for a new doctrine already, with the ‘Deans Mantra’ an early favourite and the ‘Cheika Madness’ a left-field selection listed only for the sake of having another option.

LAST WEEK: Geoff 4, Brett 4, Harry 3, Christy 3, Digger 2; The Crowd 4.

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OVERALL: Digger 37, Brett 37, Christy 37, Geoff 36, Harry 31; The Crowd 36.

DIGGER WATCH: Sadly came to an end last week at 25 correct selections. And Digger is still a bit bummed about it, so definitely don’t bring it up in the comments below. Moana Pasifika, to answer your question. But another streak has emerged, and it’s only fair that the same pressure is applied to…

BRETT WATCH: Current streak extends to 23 on the trot, going back to midway through Round 4. Frankly, I’m as surprised as you lot. There are three Blues games in that run.

Geoff

TIPS: CHIEFS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, HIGHLANDERS

The Chiefs finally welcome back fledgling All Black lock Josh Lord this week, after a long lay-off from injury. That’s reason enough to get excited, as is the prospect of a fast-moving game between two sides who like to let the ball, and their big bodies, do the talking. The Chiefs will find this a far easier proposition than their trip to Fiji last year.

The Rebels have used the bye week to rest some injured men and have picked a strong-looking side. On the downside, Eddie’s Gold Coast Wallabies camp hasn’t done them any favours, with the playing 23 unable to have a full training session since their loss to the Blues. The Crusaders haven’t done them any favours either, bringing a strong side across, and they should be good enough to take the points.

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The Swinton-less Tahs travel to Auckland, and this should be another of those, ‘lots of promising signs, but not quite good enough’ kind of matches. Blues by a few.

The toughie follows to finish off the final split round. It kind of feels like the Force are due; particularly if they start well. But it also feels like the Highlanders are over the worst of their troubles.

SURE THING – The TMO who missed Swinton’s hit on Strachan will be made to write out 5,000 lines ‘I must get more involved’. Every other TMO must write out 10,000 lines, ‘I must get less involved’.

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

Brett

TIPS: CHIEFS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, FORCE.

The biggest question for the Chiefs right now is ‘How many rounds will they go undefeated?’, and the answer is at least nine. The Drua will take plenty of confidence from Canberra to Hamilton, but they’ll need a whole lot stronger grip in the last 25 minutes to challenge the competition leaders this week.

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I’d love to see the Rebels win exactly the sort of game they need to start winning, but suspect the Crusaders have used the week off to find that next gear. I’d be happy to get this one wrong, actually.

And I probably will get the Blues wrong anyway, so I’ll just take them and enjoy the Australian win!

The hardest game this weekend is most certainly the last one of the round over in Perth. The Highlanders’ record in the west over the years actually isn’t too bad, but this might be only the first or second time they’ve done the gruelling road trip (Dunedin to Auckland to Sydney to Perth? Ouch!) on its own and not on the way to or from South Africa. At least they’ll get to spend next week at Coogee Beach in Sydney.

But I don’t know, the Force just seem due, and their season is absolutely on the line. Even with a strong of home games to come, a loss this weekend will just about be curtains for their top-eight aspirations. The most desperate of all the Round 9 desperation might just be the biggest motivator.

SURE THING: With a 7-week suspension after a missed high shot putting all refs and TMOs on notice, I think we’ll see a non-replaceable full red card this week. In fact, it might not even need the TMO review to get there. And the judicial process will turn around and say it doesn’t meet red card threshold on Monday night next week, but that’s another Sure Thing for another week.

Harry

TIPS: CHIEFS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, HIGHLANDERS.

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A clean start. A clean mind. A clean sweep for the Kiwi sides.

I don’t remember the laggard getting this much press when it was (never) me.

Brett’s note: Probably something to do with who the laggard was…

But I acknowledge I’m fascinating.

This week begins the return of the king.

SURE THING: Chiefs, Crusaders, Blues and Highlanders will restore my faith.

Cortez Ratima of the Chiefs celebrates with his team after scoring a try during the round one Super Rugby Pacific match between Crusaders and Chiefs at Orangetheory Stadium, on February 24, 2023, in Christchurch, New Zealand. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

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Christy

TIPS: CHIEFS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, FORCE

Who is sick of four-match rounds? Me. Seriously, why on Earth is Super Rugby accepting four-match rounds?

While every other competition shows their sport for breakfast, lunch and dinner from Thursday through to the weekend, rugby is asleep at the wheel.

OK, rant’s over.

Despite resting a few key players, including Sam Cane and Brad Weber, the Chiefs should be too strong for the Drua. Their ability to play unstructured rugby could help them run the Drua off their feet.

The Crusaders are expected to be far too strong for the Rebels, but I don’t think it’ll be a one-way street. The Rebels will push the Crusaders, but can they play 80 minutes?

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Saturday is what excites me the most. The Waratahs need to fire a shot. Despite being down on troops they still have a good enough side. Time for some, including Tolu Latu, to stand up.

The Force finally are back home, too. That will help but they’ll need to shore up their defence to stand a chance against the Highlanders.

SURE THING: Depth. If Australia can’t register a win over the weekend questions will once again be asked about whether the nation can support five franchises.

Digger

TIPS: CHIEFS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, HIGHLANDERS.

Well, that was a disappointing last tipping round, blowing a few of my tipping theories out the window. The theory is all well and good until someone punches you in the mouth.

This round, difficult not to go with all the Kiwi teams.

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Chiefs at home is quickly becoming a no-brainer on current form and while the Rebels might just be a sneaky shout, I think the Crusaders will have too much in the toolbox.

Blues at home should be too strong for the Waratahs both up front and out wide, and the Force could also be worth a nudge but I will take the ‘conservative’ tip and stick with the Southerners.

SURE THING: Daylight kickoffs are certainly appreciated. If a few loyal followers wouldn’t mind fiddling with the lights of the local ground, and pull a wire here and there, it would be appreciated.

Round 9GeoffDiggerHarryBrettChristyThe Crowd
Overall363731373736
Last Week423434
CHI v DRUChiefsChiefsChiefsChiefsChiefsChiefs 
REB v CRUCrusadersCrusadersCrusadersCrusadersCrusadersCrusaders
BLU v WARBluesBluesBluesBluesBluesBlues
FOR v HIGH’landersH’landersH’landersForceForceForce

Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.

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