It all comes down to this. With one round of the regular season remaining in Super Rugby Pacific for 2023 and eight teams heading into the knockout stages, quarterfinal placings and hosting rights are on the line.
There is all to play for 11 of the 12 teams and five clubs are fighting for the last two spots in the finals draw. The Reds could slip from seventh to 11th – and there’s still a chance the 11th-placed Rebels can sneak into the playoffs.
Here are all the scenarios that can play out from the final weekend’s games.
But first, a quick check in with the rules for deciding the finals match ups and final table placings, which is likely to come into play on the final weekend.
Finals match ups
Quarterfinals – 1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6 and 4 v 5 with the top-ranked team hosting
Semi-Finals – top-ranked quarter-final winner hosts against lowest-ranked quarter-final winner & 2nd highest ranked quarterfinal winner hosts 3rd highest ranked winner.
Final – top-ranked semi-final winner hosts the other semi-final winner.
Points system
Wins are worth 4 points, draws (after a 10-minute golden period) are worth 2 points. 1 bonus point awarded for losing by 7 points or fewer, 1 bonus point awarded for scoring 3 tries or more than the opponent.
How table ties are decided
In the event of two or more teams being equal on competition points for any position on the competition table final positions will be decided upon using the following steps until the tie is broken:
a) Most wins from all matches;
b) Highest aggregate points difference from all matches;
c) Most tries from all matches;
d) Highest aggregate difference of total tries for versus tries scored against from all matches;
e) Coin toss
CLICK HERE FOR THE TEAM NEWS AHEAD OF THE FINAL ROUND
1st: Chiefs 12 wins, 1 loss, 54 points
Next game: Away vs Force, Saturday 10pm AEST.
Scenario: The Chiefs’ impressive bonus point win over the Brumbies in Canberra means they can’t lose top spot and have the rails run right through to the grand final. Expect the Chiefs to travel to Western Australia next week with a B team that could help the Force’s chances of sneaking into the top eight.
Highest finish: 1st.
Lowest finish: 1st
Prediction: The best team in this year’s competition locked up top place with a game to play.
2nd: Crusaders 10 wins, 3 losses, 47 points
Next game: Away vs Hurricanes, Saturday 5.05pm AEST
Scenario: A Crusaders win, or a loss with a bonus point, against the ‘Canes will secure second place and a quarterfinal at home against the seventh placed team. They can lose second if they lose without a bonus point and the Blues win with one. The Blues would also have to produce a 33-point swing – the Crusaders have a +180 to +147 points differential advantage over the Blues.
Highest finish: 2nd
Lowest finish: 3rd
Prediction: The Hurricanes will throw plenty at last year’s champions, but the Crusaders should have enough to get the job done and hold onto second and secure the possibility of a home semifinal.
3rd: Blues 9 wins, 4 losses, 42 points
Next game: Home vs Highlanders, Friday 5.05pm AEST
Scenario: As described above, the Blues could leap frog the Crusaders. At the same time a loss to the Highlanders and win by the Brumbies will see the Australians go back into third. If the Blues win without a bonus point, and the Brumbies win with one they will be locked on 46 points each. Third spot would come down to points differential but the Blues have a massive advantage – +147 to + 65.
The fifth placed Hurricanes will equal the Blues if they get a bonus point. The points differential between the Blues and Hurricanes is tight – the Blues holding a margin of just six point, +147 to +141.
Highest finish: 2nd
Lowest finish: 5th
Prediction: With little difference between third and fourth, will the Blues take their foot off the pedal and allow the Highlanders the edge in their game? That’s possible, but the Blues should have enough to stay in third and face the Waratahs in the quarters.
4th: Brumbies 9 wins, 4 losses, 41 points
Next game: Home vs Rebels, Friday 7.35pm AEST
Scenario: Back-to-back defeats have seen the Brumbies drop two spots on the ladder. If the Blues lose and Brumbies win, the Australians will go into third. If they both win, it will be the Blues holding onto third spot. The Brumbies will also slip to fifth with a no bonus point defeat and a Hurricanes win. The Brumbies and Canes could also finish on 41 or 42 points with both having 9 wins. The Canes enjoy a +141 to +65 advantage on points differential.
Highest finish: 3rd
Lowest finish: 5th
Prediction: The Brumbies will rise again to end the Rebels’ season at home next week, and secure fourth and a home quarterfinal against the Hurricanes.
CLuke Jacobson of the Chiefs makes a line break to score a try against the ACT Brumbies. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
5th: Hurricanes 8 wins, 5 losses, 37 points
Next game: Home vs Crusaders, Saturday 5.05pm
Scenario: The Hurricanes can sneak into third with losses by the Blues and the Brumbies. They would need a bonus point and to turn around their points differential – completely achieveable to make the top three. If the Brumbies lose and Hurricanes win the Kiwis will go ahead of the Aussies into fourth.
Highest finish: 3rd
Lowest finish: 5th
Prediction: The Crusaders will be desperate to put themselves in the box position to host a home semi but it will be a tight affair.
6th: Waratahs 6 wins, 7 losses, 31 points
Next game: Home vs Moana Pasifika, Saturday 7.35pm AEST
Scenario: The Tahs will likely face either the Blues or Brumbies in the quarterfinals. They will finish sixth, being unable to reach the fifth placed Hurricanes and safely ahead of the chasing pack.
Highest finish: 6th
Lowest finish: 6th
Prediction: Moana Pasifika are the one team you’d want to be playing this week, as the Tahs choose between giving key men a break or trying to work on hitting peak form for the playoffs.
7th: Reds 5 wins, 8 losses, 24 points
Next game: Away vs Fijian Drua, Saturday 2.35pm AEST
Scenario: This is where the table gets packed and really interesting, and Queensland’s situation has the most complicated permutations.
Let’s start best case scenario: A bonus point win for the Reds against Drua means they would finish in seventh and face the Crusaders or Blues. In the event they beat the Drua but fail to gain a bonus point, while the Highlanders beat the Blues AND get the extra point, the two teams would be tied on same number of points (28) and wins (6). The 7th-8th split would be decided on for and against differential and the Reds have a huge advantage of a -36 to -90 differential going into the final week, so any win all but seals seventh.
A loss in Fiji, even with a losing bonus point, will see them miss out if either of the Highlanders or the Force win their games. The Reds would stay on 24 points (or 25 with a losing bonus point), the Highlanders can reach 27/28, Force 26/27 and Rebels 25/26.
A Drua win would give them 25 points but a Reds bonus point wouldn’t help as the Fijians would be above them based on having six wins to five.
(Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)
If the Reds get to 25 points and are tied with the Rebels, they will have five wins each and the Reds have a differential edge of -36 to -62.
So another way of putting it: The Reds can advance with a loss but they need the Highlanders and Force to lose their games plus Rebels to not gain a bonus point if they win and the scorelines blow out!
Highest finish: 7th
Lowest finish: 11th
Prediction: The Reds will be without co-captains Tate McDermott and Liam Wright plus Connor Vest – paying a heavy toll in the controversial loss to the Highlanders. The Drua, with a home crowd and heat of the day have already touched up a few teams this season – it will be a huge effort if the Reds can avoid defeat and fortunate if other results fall their way. The Drua could storm over the top and claim 8th.
8th: Highlanders 5 wins, 8 losses, 23 points
Next game: Away vs Blues, Friday 5.05pm AEST
Scenario: A bonus point win would be enough to secure finals footy regardless of what the teams around them do. If they win but miss the bonus, and the Force beat the Chiefs and secure the extra point, the Highlanders and Force will both be on 27 points and six wins each. The Highlanders, though, have a significant edge with a -90 points differential to the Force’s -124.
A loss for the Highlanders will still be enough for them to finish eighth but only if the Force, Drua and Rebels all lose. All three can leapfrog the Kiwi team with a win and a Highlanders loss.
Highest finish: 7th
Lowest finish: 11th
Prediction: On balance the Highlanders have a tough match up, but will the third-placed Blues help out a bro and step off the gas in their meeting this weekend, to leave the non-Kiwi chasers disappointed? You wouldn’t be that shocked to see it happen, would you? But I’m going with the Highlanders to just miss out
9th: Force 5 wins, 8 losses, 22 points
Next game: Home vs Chiefs, Saturday 10pm AEST
Scenario: The Force will go to seventh with a win and losses to the Reds and Highlanders. They will be eighth if they and the Highlanders win and the Drua beat the Reds, or if both they and the Reds win and the Highlanders lose.
The Force could still make mathematically make the eight with a bonus point loss – if Highlanders (without a bonus point), Drua and Rebels all lose – they will be equal on points (23) and wins (5) with the Highlanders – but points differential highly favours the Kiwis at -90 to -124.
Highest finish: 7th
Lowest finish: 11th
Prediction: The Force will be buoyed by the Chiefs win in Canberra. With top spot locked down it will be extremely tempting for the Chiefs to send a weakened side to WA, where the Force are very hard to beat. The Force to spring an upset against a heavily rested Chiefs and take seventh.
10th: Fijian Drua 5 wins, 8 losses, 21 points
Next game: Home vs Reds, Saturday 2.35pm AEST
Scenario: The Drua will finish seventh if they beat the Reds, and the Highlanders, Force and Rebels all lose. They will finish eighth if they beat the Reds, the Highlanders win and Force and Rebels lose.
If they beat the Reds and the Highlanders lose, the Drua will be in a three-way battle for seventh and eighth with the Reds, Force and Rebels.
The Drua will move to 25 with a win or 26 points with bonus point win, the Force will move to 26 or 27 points and the Rebels will move to 25 or 26 points.
This is how the tiebreakers would work:
Drua and Rebels on 25 or 26 each – Drua advance with six wins to five.
Drua and Force on 26 each – 6 wins each, Force holds points differential edge by -124 to -146.
All three on 26 – Force and Drua ahead of Rebels on wins – 6 to 5 – and Force ahead of Drua on points differential.
The Drua can’t make the quarterfinals with a loss.
Highest finish: 7th
Lowest finish: 11th
Prediction: The Drua have demonstrated they can and will lift at home. They put on 47 points against Moana Pasifika and will be going hell-for-leather against a hurt Reds outfit and could well sneak into the playoffs.
11th: Rebels 4 wins, 9 losses, 21 points
Next game: Away vs Brumbies, Friday 7.35pm AEST
Scenario: The Rebels will finish seventh if they win with a bonus point and the Reds, Highlanders and Force lose, while the Drua don’t get a bonus point while beating the Reds.
If the Rebels and Drua finish level on 25 points – or 26 with a bonus point – and the Reds, Highlanders and Force lose, then the Drua will finish higher based on six wins to five.
The Rebels can finish eighth if they win, the Reds win and the Highlanders, Force and Drua lose. They can also finish eighth if they win with with a bonus point, Highlanders win and Reds lose without Drua getting a bonus point.
And they can finish eighth (with a bonus point win) behind the Force if the Reds and Highlanders both lose and the Drua don’t get a bonus point.
Highest finish: 7th
Lowest finish: 11th
Prediction: A lot has to happen for the Rebels to make the leap into the top 8. And that’s all before you factor in they end the season having to face the Brumbies in Canberra. But it’s not beyond the realms of possibility to see Highlanders, Force and Drua all drop games.
12th: Moana Pasifika 0 wins, 13 losses, 4 points
Next game: Away vs Waratahs 7.35pm AEST
Scenario: While they can’t avoid the spoon, they will want to break the 2023 duck in coach Aaron Mauger’s last game n charge. A win won’t impact the finals set up with the Tahs ensconced in 6th.
Highest finish: 12th
Lowest finish: 12th
Prediction: Easy one this. Another loss and a 12th placed finish.
Predicted Quarterfinals: Chiefs (1) v Drua (8), Crusaders (2) v Force (7), Blues (3) v Tahs (6), Brumbies (4) v Hurricanes (5).
